Public History World Model
Pick a date in the public macro record. Write the memo, warning, watch, or hold recommendation an analyst could have made that day. The model sees only the public data available then, and answers with a ranked set of moves and the pressures each one shifts.
Good tests
What happens if this shock lands, and should the next move be publish, wait, escalate, or open a watch?
Weak tests
Who was right, what happened later, or what is the best answer using facts the cutoff could not know?
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Timeline
Known by cutoff
Evidence
Action test
Describe a macro shock, a public response, or both. The selected date stays fixed; only the branch you type is added after that point.