{
 "version": "techtree_v3_bundle_1",
 "generated": "2026-07-09",
 "run_tag": "v3_chronological_seed7",
 "corpus": {
  "events": 4057,
  "year_range": [
   -3300000,
   2025
  ],
  "sources": {
   "Rohit's compiled workbook": 1676,
   "external technology source records": 2381
  }
 },
 "codebook": {
  "version": "history_tech_axes_v1_2026-07-08",
  "axes": {
   "knowledge_domain": {
    "label": "Kind of progress",
    "description": "What kind of understanding or capability advanced.",
    "values": [
     {
      "key": "physics_astronomy",
      "label": "Physics & astronomy",
      "definition": "Physics, astronomy, or measurement of the physical world (incl. optics as a science)."
     },
     {
      "key": "chemistry_materials",
      "label": "Chemistry & materials",
      "definition": "Chemistry, chemical processes, or understanding of materials and substances."
     },
     {
      "key": "biology_medicine",
      "label": "Biology & medicine",
      "definition": "Life sciences, medicine, physiology, or the biological side of agriculture (incl. domestication)."
     },
     {
      "key": "math_logic_software",
      "label": "Math / logic / software",
      "definition": "Mathematics, logic, algorithms, computation theory, or software."
     },
     {
      "key": "mechanics_manufacturing",
      "label": "Mechanics & manufacturing",
      "definition": "Machines, mechanisms, manufacturing processes, structural or civil engineering."
     },
     {
      "key": "electrical_information",
      "label": "Electrical & information hardware",
      "definition": "Electricity, electronics, computing hardware, or telecommunication hardware."
     },
     {
      "key": "craft_empirical",
      "label": "Empirical craft",
      "definition": "Pre-theoretical practical know-how discovered empirically: pottery, weaving, cooking, husbandry practice."
     },
     {
      "key": "unknown",
      "label": "Unknown",
      "definition": "The text does not support a confident choice."
     }
    ]
   },
   "origin_region": {
    "label": "Where it came from",
    "description": "Where the advance emerged (macro-region, by the place of the event itself).",
    "values": [
     {
      "key": "east_asia",
      "label": "East Asia",
      "definition": "China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan."
     },
     {
      "key": "south_se_asia",
      "label": "South & Southeast Asia",
      "definition": "Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia."
     },
     {
      "key": "mena",
      "label": "Middle East & North Africa",
      "definition": "Middle East and North Africa incl. Mesopotamia, Egypt, Persia/Iran, the Arab world, Anatolia, Central Asia, the Caucasus."
     },
     {
      "key": "europe",
      "label": "Europe",
      "definition": "Europe incl. Greece, Rome, Byzantium, and Russia."
     },
     {
      "key": "north_america",
      "label": "North America",
      "definition": "USA and Canada."
     },
     {
      "key": "latin_america",
      "label": "Latin America",
      "definition": "Mexico, Central and South America, the Caribbean."
     },
     {
      "key": "sub_saharan_africa",
      "label": "Sub-Saharan Africa",
      "definition": "Africa south of the Sahara."
     },
     {
      "key": "oceania_other",
      "label": "Oceania & other",
      "definition": "Australia, New Zealand, Pacific islands."
     },
     {
      "key": "multiple",
      "label": "Multiple",
      "definition": "Genuinely multi-regional or independently invented in several regions."
     },
     {
      "key": "unknown",
      "label": "Unknown",
      "definition": "Origin cannot be placed with confidence."
     }
    ]
   },
   "application_domain": {
    "label": "What it was for",
    "description": "What human activity the advance primarily served at the time.",
    "values": [
     {
      "key": "food_agriculture",
      "label": "Food & agriculture",
      "definition": "Growing, raising, processing, or preserving food."
     },
     {
      "key": "health_medicine",
      "label": "Health & medicine",
      "definition": "Healing, surgery, drugs, public health."
     },
     {
      "key": "making_materials",
      "label": "Making & materials",
      "definition": "Producing goods and materials: manufacturing, metallurgy, mining, textiles production."
     },
     {
      "key": "energy_power",
      "label": "Energy & power",
      "definition": "Generating, storing, or transmitting power (fire, steam, electricity, engines as power sources)."
     },
     {
      "key": "transport",
      "label": "Transport",
      "definition": "Moving people or goods: land, sea, air, space."
     },
     {
      "key": "communication_media",
      "label": "Communication & media",
      "definition": "Recording, transmitting, or reproducing information: writing, printing, telegraphy, broadcasting, photography as record."
     },
     {
      "key": "computation_information",
      "label": "Computation & information",
      "definition": "Calculating, data processing, software services, information organization."
     },
     {
      "key": "military_security",
      "label": "Military & security",
      "definition": "Weapons, defense, fortification, policing."
     },
     {
      "key": "construction_infrastructure",
      "label": "Construction & infrastructure",
      "definition": "Buildings, roads, bridges, water systems."
     },
     {
      "key": "household_daily_life",
      "label": "Household & daily life",
      "definition": "Clothing, furniture, lighting, sanitation, cooking tools, personal items."
     },
     {
      "key": "culture_arts_recreation",
      "label": "Culture, arts & recreation",
      "definition": "Music, visual art, entertainment, games, ritual objects."
     },
     {
      "key": "science_measurement",
      "label": "Science & measurement",
      "definition": "Instruments and standards serving inquiry itself: telescopes, seismographs, calendars, SI units."
     },
     {
      "key": "unknown",
      "label": "Unknown",
      "definition": "The text does not support a confident choice."
     }
    ]
   },
   "mechanism": {
    "label": "Form of the advance",
    "description": "The form the advance took.",
    "values": [
     {
      "key": "discovery_observation",
      "label": "Discovery / observation",
      "definition": "An empirical finding about the world: a substance, phenomenon, or fact observed."
     },
     {
      "key": "theory_concept",
      "label": "Theory / concept",
      "definition": "An explanatory framework, mathematical result, or conceptual idea."
     },
     {
      "key": "device_instrument",
      "label": "Device / instrument",
      "definition": "A new artifact: tool, machine, instrument, weapon, or component."
     },
     {
      "key": "process_technique",
      "label": "Process / technique",
      "definition": "A method or practice: a way of making, doing, growing, or treating."
     },
     {
      "key": "material_substance",
      "label": "Material / substance",
      "definition": "A new material, compound, or consumable good."
     },
     {
      "key": "standard_system",
      "label": "Standard / system",
      "definition": "A standard, system, platform, or institutionalized convention (SI units, codecs, calendars-as-standards)."
     },
     {
      "key": "knowledge_transmission",
      "label": "Knowledge transmission",
      "definition": "Texts, translations, teaching, or encyclopedic compilation moving existing knowledge."
     },
     {
      "key": "unknown",
      "label": "Unknown",
      "definition": "The text does not support a confident choice."
     }
    ]
   },
   "institutional_context": {
    "label": "Who produced it",
    "description": "Who produced the advance (the setting, not the funding).",
    "values": [
     {
      "key": "individual_artisan",
      "label": "Individuals & artisans",
      "definition": "Individual inventors, craftspeople, or informal groups outside institutions."
     },
     {
      "key": "scholarly_academic",
      "label": "Scholarly & academic",
      "definition": "Universities, academies, scholarly circles, learned societies, university laboratories."
     },
     {
      "key": "state_military",
      "label": "State & military",
      "definition": "State projects, courts, military organizations, national laboratories."
     },
     {
      "key": "religious",
      "label": "Religious institutions",
      "definition": "Religious institutions: monasteries, temples, church scholarship."
     },
     {
      "key": "commercial_industrial",
      "label": "Commercial & industrial",
      "definition": "Companies, workshops-for-market, industrial enterprises, corporate research labs (e.g. Bell Labs)."
     },
     {
      "key": "unknown",
      "label": "Unknown",
      "definition": "The text does not support a confident choice."
     }
    ]
   }
  }
 },
 "agreement": {
  "models": [
   "gpt-5.4-mini",
   "gpt-5.4-nano"
  ],
  "n_events": 4057,
  "keep_threshold_kappa": 0.6,
  "inter_model": {
   "knowledge_domain": {
    "raw_agreement": 0.8055,
    "cohen_kappa": 0.7703,
    "verdict": "keep"
   },
   "origin_region": {
    "raw_agreement": 0.8109,
    "cohen_kappa": 0.7122,
    "verdict": "keep"
   },
   "application_domain": {
    "raw_agreement": 0.8048,
    "cohen_kappa": 0.7786,
    "verdict": "keep"
   },
   "mechanism": {
    "raw_agreement": 0.8151,
    "cohen_kappa": 0.7354,
    "verdict": "keep"
   },
   "institutional_context": {
    "raw_agreement": 0.7449,
    "cohen_kappa": 0.6502,
    "verdict": "keep"
   }
  },
  "validation": [
   {
    "check": "origin_region_vs_country",
    "n": 1545,
    "kappa": {
     "gpt-5.4-mini": 0.801,
     "gpt-5.4-nano": 0.5457
    }
   },
   {
    "check": "mechanism_vs_node_type",
    "n": 2375,
    "kappa": {
     "gpt-5.4-mini": 0.658,
     "gpt-5.4-nano": 0.543
    }
   },
   {
    "check": "application_vs_fields",
    "n": 1371,
    "kappa": {
     "gpt-5.4-mini": 0.781,
     "gpt-5.4-nano": 0.764
    }
   },
   {
    "check": "knowledge_vs_subject",
    "n": 1425,
    "kappa": {
     "gpt-5.4-mini": 0.8275,
     "gpt-5.4-nano": 0.758
    }
   }
  ]
 },
 "timelines": {
  "eras": [
   "Deep prehistory",
   "Neolithic",
   "Ancient",
   "Classical to early medieval",
   "Medieval",
   "Early modern",
   "Industrial century",
   "Early 20th century",
   "Postwar systems",
   "Networked computation",
   "AI and platform era"
  ],
  "era_event_counts": [
   98,
   150,
   461,
   248,
   203,
   482,
   889,
   648,
   496,
   214,
   168
  ],
  "axes": {
   "knowledge_domain": {
    "physics_astronomy": [
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     0.0067,
     0.0911,
     0.0484,
     0.0788,
     0.1535,
     0.1265,
     0.1968,
     0.1431,
     0.1238,
     0.0923
    ],
    "chemistry_materials": [
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     0.14,
     0.1074,
     0.123,
     0.0936,
     0.1629,
     0.2458,
     0.1659,
     0.0877,
     0.0654,
     0.006
    ],
    "biology_medicine": [
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     0.1333,
     0.1204,
     0.1169,
     0.1724,
     0.1255,
     0.081,
     0.1181,
     0.1956,
     0.2173,
     0.1905
    ],
    "math_logic_software": [
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     0.0467,
     0.1887,
     0.2278,
     0.1872,
     0.1795,
     0.0726,
     0.1188,
     0.1734,
     0.1752,
     0.2946
    ],
    "mechanics_manufacturing": [
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     0.2833,
     0.3319,
     0.2823,
     0.335,
     0.306,
     0.3026,
     0.2006,
     0.1028,
     0.0864,
     0.0625
    ],
    "electrical_information": [
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     0.0,
     0.0011,
     0.0,
     0.0049,
     0.0176,
     0.131,
     0.1752,
     0.2853,
     0.3294,
     0.3393
    ],
    "craft_empirical": [
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     0.39,
     0.1312,
     0.1613,
     0.1059,
     0.0498,
     0.036,
     0.0208,
     0.0121,
     0.0023,
     0.003
    ],
    "unknown": [
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     0.0,
     0.0282,
     0.0403,
     0.0222,
     0.0052,
     0.0045,
     0.0039,
     0.0,
     0.0,
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    ]
   },
   "origin_region": {
    "east_asia": [
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     0.1,
     0.1009,
     0.1976,
     0.1847,
     0.0187,
     0.0039,
     0.0069,
     0.0272,
     0.0607,
     0.0506
    ],
    "south_se_asia": [
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     0.0633,
     0.1345,
     0.1331,
     0.0468,
     0.0135,
     0.0034,
     0.0015,
     0.0,
     0.0023,
     0.003
    ],
    "mena": [
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     0.42,
     0.3102,
     0.2601,
     0.2537,
     0.0145,
     0.0022,
     0.0054,
     0.002,
     0.0023,
     0.006
    ],
    "europe": [
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     0.0967,
     0.3373,
     0.3125,
     0.4704,
     0.918,
     0.8307,
     0.6165,
     0.3256,
     0.2453,
     0.1667
    ],
    "north_america": [
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     0.0033,
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     0.0025,
     0.0124,
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     0.3048,
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    "latin_america": [
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     0.0,
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     0.002,
     0.0,
     0.0
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    "sub_saharan_africa": [
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     0.0,
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     0.0,
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     0.0,
     0.0,
     0.0
    ],
    "oceania_other": [
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     0.0,
     0.0,
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     0.0,
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     0.007,
     0.003
    ],
    "multiple": [
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     0.0738,
     0.0605,
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     0.0202,
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    ],
    "unknown": [
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     0.04,
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     0.0157,
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    ]
   },
   "application_domain": {
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     0.0197,
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     0.0326,
     0.0139,
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    ],
    "health_medicine": [
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     0.131,
     0.1847,
     0.1276,
     0.0951,
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     0.2248,
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    ],
    "making_materials": [
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     0.119,
     0.1084,
     0.1566,
     0.149,
     0.0864,
     0.0524,
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    ],
    "energy_power": [
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     0.0838,
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     0.0119
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    "transport": [
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     0.0867,
     0.0651,
     0.0867,
     0.069,
     0.0456,
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     0.0504,
     0.0187,
     0.0655
    ],
    "communication_media": [
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     0.0706,
     0.0443,
     0.0322,
     0.1091,
     0.1204,
     0.1462,
     0.2734,
     0.2262
    ],
    "computation_information": [
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     0.0219,
     0.0849,
     0.2067,
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    ],
    "military_security": [
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     0.0164,
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    "construction_infrastructure": [
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     0.0
    ],
    "household_daily_life": [
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    ],
    "culture_arts_recreation": [
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     0.0,
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    ],
    "science_measurement": [
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    "unknown": [
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     0.0,
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    ]
   },
   "mechanism": {
    "discovery_observation": [
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    ],
    "theory_concept": [
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     0.2091,
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    ],
    "device_instrument": [
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    "process_technique": [
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    "material_substance": [
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    ],
    "standard_system": [
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    "knowledge_transmission": [
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     0.0,
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     0.0084,
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    ],
    "unknown": [
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     0.0028,
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     0.0,
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    ]
   },
   "institutional_context": {
    "individual_artisan": [
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     0.2512,
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     0.088,
     0.0252,
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    ],
    "scholarly_academic": [
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     0.0,
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     0.3892,
     0.4212,
     0.4134,
     0.4977,
     0.4607,
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    ],
    "state_military": [
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     0.0467,
     0.1757,
     0.1109,
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    ],
    "religious": [
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     0.0,
     0.0,
     0.0,
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    ],
    "commercial_industrial": [
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    "unknown": [
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    ]
   }
  }
 },
 "eval": {
  "evaluator_version": "history_tech_eval_axes_v4_simplex_year_balanced",
  "split_policy": "strict_chronological_year_ranges",
  "split_boundaries": {
   "train": [
    -3300000,
    1825
   ],
   "validation": [
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 "receipts": [
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   "era": "Neolithic",
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   "era": "Neolithic",
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    },
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     "consensus": "science_measurement"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "discovery_observation",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "device_instrument"
     }
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "individual_artisan",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "scholarly_academic"
     }
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Classical to early medieval",
   "year": 50,
   "source": "external technology source records",
   "text": "Birch bark manuscript. The oldest birch bark scrolls from Gandhara are dated to the first half of the 1st century.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "craft_empirical"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "south_se_asia"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "communication_media"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "material_substance",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "device_instrument"
     }
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "unknown",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "scholarly_academic"
     }
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Classical to early medieval",
   "year": 910,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "Ishaq ibn Hunayn.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "math_logic_software",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "biology_medicine"
     }
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "mena"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "communication_media",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "health_medicine"
     }
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "knowledge_transmission"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "scholarly_academic"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Classical to early medieval",
   "year": 500,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "India, Aryabhata writes the Aryabhata-Siddhanta, which first introduces the trigonometric functions and methods of calculating their approximate numerical values. It defines the concepts of sine and cosine, and also contains the earliest ta",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "math_logic_software"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "south_se_asia"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "science_measurement"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "theory_concept"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "scholarly_academic"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Medieval",
   "year": 1127,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "Stephen of Antioch translated the work of Haly Abbas.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "biology_medicine"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "mena"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "health_medicine"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "knowledge_transmission"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "scholarly_academic"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Medieval",
   "year": 1000,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "Pope Sylvester II introduces the abacus using the Hindu-Arabic numeral system to Europe.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "math_logic_software"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "europe",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "mena"
     }
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "computation_information"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "knowledge_transmission",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "device_instrument"
     }
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "religious"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Medieval",
   "year": 1030,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "Ali Ahmad Nasawi writes a treatise on the decimal and sexagesimal number systems. His arithmetic explains the division of fractions and the extraction of square and cubic roots (square root of 57,342; cubic root of 3, 652, 296) in an almost",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "math_logic_software"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "mena"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "computation_information",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "science_measurement"
     }
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "knowledge_transmission"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "scholarly_academic"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Early modern",
   "year": 1683,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "Lorenz Heister.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "biology_medicine"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "europe"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "health_medicine"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "knowledge_transmission"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "scholarly_academic"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Early modern",
   "year": 1678,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "the red blood corpuscles was described by Jan Swammerdam of Amsterdam, a Dutch naturalist and physician. The first complete account of the red cells was made by Anthony van Leeuwenhoek of Delft in the last quarter of the 17th century.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "biology_medicine"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "europe"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "health_medicine"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "discovery_observation"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "individual_artisan",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "scholarly_academic"
     }
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Early modern",
   "year": 1540,
   "source": "external technology source records",
   "text": "Ether. aka Diethyl ether. \"The compound may have been synthesised by either Jābir ibn Hayyān in the 8th century or Ramon Llull in 1275,\" but Valerius Cordus's 1540 synthesis seems more definite. This is also approximately the date of Parace",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "chemistry_materials"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "europe",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "mena"
     }
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "health_medicine"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "material_substance"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "individual_artisan",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "scholarly_academic"
     }
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Industrial century",
   "year": 1835,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "Joseph Henry invents the electromechanical relay.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "electrical_information"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "north_america"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "communication_media"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "device_instrument"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "scholarly_academic"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Industrial century",
   "year": 1813,
   "source": "external technology source records",
   "text": "Leavers machine.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "mechanics_manufacturing"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "europe"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "making_materials"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "device_instrument"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "commercial_industrial"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Industrial century",
   "year": 1871,
   "source": "external technology source records",
   "text": "Corrugated fiberboard. aka Corrugated cardboard. Improved by Oliver Long in 1874 by having liner sheets on both sides of the corrugated part.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "chemistry_materials",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "mechanics_manufacturing"
     }
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "north_america"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "making_materials"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "process_technique",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "device_instrument"
     }
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "commercial_industrial"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Early 20th century",
   "year": 1934,
   "source": "external technology source records",
   "text": "Pressure suit. Colley, BFGoodrich.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "mechanics_manufacturing"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "north_america"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "military_security",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "transport"
     }
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "device_instrument"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "commercial_industrial"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Early 20th century",
   "year": 1903,
   "source": "external technology source records",
   "text": "Electrolytic detector.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "electrical_information"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "north_america",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "europe"
     }
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "communication_media"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "device_instrument"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "individual_artisan",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "commercial_industrial"
     }
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Early 20th century",
   "year": 1945,
   "source": "external technology source records",
   "text": "Merge sort.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "math_logic_software"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "north_america",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "europe"
     }
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "computation_information"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "theory_concept"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "scholarly_academic"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Postwar systems",
   "year": 1954,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "Ventouse – Tage Malmstrom.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "biology_medicine",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "electrical_information"
     }
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "europe"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "health_medicine",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "communication_media"
     }
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "device_instrument"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "individual_artisan",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "unknown"
     }
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Postwar systems",
   "year": 1978,
   "source": "external technology source records",
   "text": "LaserDisc.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "electrical_information"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "north_america"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "communication_media"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "device_instrument"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "commercial_industrial"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Postwar systems",
   "year": 1957,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "The first artificial satellite, Sputnik 1, is built and launched by the Soviet Union.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "mechanics_manufacturing",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "physics_astronomy"
     }
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "europe"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "science_measurement",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "transport"
     }
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "device_instrument"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "state_military"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Networked computation",
   "year": 1995,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "Java. James Gosling. A programming language that is designed to be platform-independent and to enable the development of complex software applications. It has been widely used in a range of applications, from web servers to scientific compu",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "math_logic_software"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "north_america"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "computation_information"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "device_instrument"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "commercial_industrial"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Networked computation",
   "year": 1995,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "EriCornell and Carl Wieman produce the first Bose–Einstein condensate, a substance that displays quantum mechanical properties on the macroscopiscale.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "physics_astronomy"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "north_america"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "science_measurement"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "discovery_observation",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "device_instrument"
     }
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "scholarly_academic"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "Networked computation",
   "year": 1994,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "IBM Simon, World's first smart phone developed by IBM.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "electrical_information"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "north_america"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "communication_media"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "device_instrument"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "commercial_industrial"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "AI and platform era",
   "year": 2001,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "iPod. A portable media player that was developed by Apple Computer. It was the first device that could store a large amount of music and played a major role in the transformation of the music industry.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "electrical_information"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "north_america"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "communication_media"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "device_instrument"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "commercial_industrial"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "AI and platform era",
   "year": 2019,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "5G. Fifth-generation (5G) wireless technology, which offers even faster internet speeds and greater connectivity, began to be introduced.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "electrical_information"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "multiple"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "communication_media"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "votes": {
      "gpt-5.4-mini": "standard_system",
      "gpt-5.4-nano": "device_instrument"
     }
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "commercial_industrial"
    }
   }
  },
  {
   "era": "AI and platform era",
   "year": 2019,
   "source": "Rohit's compiled workbook",
   "text": "First image of a Black hole.",
   "labels": {
    "knowledge_domain": {
     "consensus": "physics_astronomy"
    },
    "origin_region": {
     "consensus": "multiple"
    },
    "application_domain": {
     "consensus": "science_measurement"
    },
    "mechanism": {
     "consensus": "device_instrument"
    },
    "institutional_context": {
     "consensus": "scholarly_academic"
    }
   }
  }
 ],
 "forecasts": {
  "horizon_years": 25,
  "n_test_anchors": 695,
  "selection_rule": "era cards: the test anchor with the median aggregate model MSE in each era (typical, not flattering); stress cards: per axis, the anchor where the model loses to persistence by the most",
  "cards": [
   {
    "selected_as": "era_typical:Postwar systems",
    "selection_reasons": [
     "era_typical:Postwar systems"
    ],
    "year": 1961,
    "era": "Postwar systems",
    "anchor_title": "Superconducting magnet. Niobium–tin magnet. first practical superconducting magnet.",
    "context_titles": [
     "John G. F. Francis and Vera Kublanovskaya independently develop the QR algorithm to calcul",
     "Stephen Smale proves the Poincaré conjecture for all dimensions greater than or equal to 5",
     "The first crewed spaceflight is achieved by Vostok 1.",
     "Carousel slide projector. Hansen, Kodak.",
     "Cochlear implant. There was earlier work in 1957 by André Djourno and Charles Eyriès that ",
     "Electronic calculator. ANITA Mark VII and VIII.",
     "Ibuprofen.",
     "Industrial robot. Unimate. Engelberger, Unimation.",
     "Integrated circuit computer. Semiconductor Network Computer.",
     "Lidar.",
     "Messenger RNA. aka mRNA. Discovery credit is usually considered shared among several peopl",
     "Oral polio vaccine.",
     "Radioisotope generator. SNAP 3B. The principle of converting radioactive decay to electric",
     "Space capsule and crewed spaceflight. Vostok 1. First human spaceflight (Yuri Gagarin).",
     "Space suit. SK-1. Date of first space suit to be used in space, by Yuri Gagarin.",
     "Superconducting magnet. Niobium–tin magnet. first practical superconducting magnet."
    ],
    "realized_window": {
     "events": 367,
     "sample_titles": [
      "Albert Sabin develops first oral polio vaccine.",
      "Beta blocker James W. Black.",
      "Donald Marquardt proposes the Levenberg–Marquardt nonlinear least squares fitting algorith",
      "George Olah observes carbocations via superacid reactions.",
      "Hip replacement – John Charnley.",
      "Max Perutz and John Kendrew shared the Nobel prize for their work on the structure of hemo"
     ]
    },
    "axes": {
     "knowledge_domain": {
      "predicted": {
       "physics_astronomy": 0.155347,
       "chemistry_materials": 0.070276,
       "biology_medicine": 0.212859,
       "math_logic_software": 0.324444,
       "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.049601,
       "electrical_information": 0.187472,
       "craft_empirical": 0.0,
       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "realized": {
       "physics_astronomy": 0.13079,
       "chemistry_materials": 0.077657,
       "biology_medicine": 0.213896,
       "math_logic_software": 0.163488,
       "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.088556,
       "electrical_information": 0.318801,
       "craft_empirical": 0.006812,
       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "persistence": {
       "physics_astronomy": 0.2,
       "chemistry_materials": 0.08,
       "biology_medicine": 0.18,
       "math_logic_software": 0.22,
       "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.12,
       "electrical_information": 0.18,
       "craft_empirical": 0.02,
       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "mse": {
       "model": 0.00567,
       "persistence": 0.0037,
       "input_linear": 0.00448,
       "mean": 0.01874
      }
     },
     "origin_region": {
      "predicted": {
       "east_asia": 0.0,
       "south_se_asia": 0.024758,
       "mena": 0.018632,
       "europe": 0.434558,
       "north_america": 0.455893,
       "latin_america": 0.0,
       "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0,
       "oceania_other": 0.0,
       "multiple": 0.049167,
       "unknown": 0.016993
      },
      "realized": {
       "east_asia": 0.046322,
       "south_se_asia": 0.0,
       "mena": 0.002725,
       "europe": 0.258856,
       "north_america": 0.619891,
       "latin_america": 0.002725,
       "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0,
       "oceania_other": 0.001362,
       "multiple": 0.043597,
       "unknown": 0.024523
      },
      "persistence": {
       "east_asia": 0.0,
       "south_se_asia": 0.0,
       "mena": 0.0,
       "europe": 0.42,
       "north_america": 0.48,
       "latin_america": 0.0,
       "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0,
       "oceania_other": 0.0,
       "multiple": 0.06,
       "unknown": 0.04
      },
      "mse": {
       "model": 0.00609,
       "persistence": 0.00482,
       "input_linear": 0.03911,
       "mean": 0.06053
      }
     },
     "application_domain": {
      "predicted": {
       "food_agriculture": 0.0,
       "health_medicine": 0.22,
       "making_materials": 0.04,
       "energy_power": 0.04,
       "transport": 0.08,
       "communication_media": 0.1,
       "computation_information": 0.22,
       "military_security": 0.0,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.0,
       "household_daily_life": 0.0,
       "culture_arts_recreation": 0.0,
       "science_measurement": 0.3,
       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "realized": {
       "food_agriculture": 0.016349,
       "health_medicine": 0.239782,
       "making_materials": 0.053134,
       "energy_power": 0.020436,
       "transport": 0.043597,
       "communication_media": 0.168937,
       "computation_information": 0.207084,
       "military_security": 0.017711,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.002725,
       "household_daily_life": 0.017711,
       "culture_arts_recreation": 0.019074,
       "science_measurement": 0.190736,
       "unknown": 0.002725
      },
      "persistence": {
       "food_agriculture": 0.0,
       "health_medicine": 0.22,
       "making_materials": 0.04,
       "energy_power": 0.04,
       "transport": 0.08,
       "communication_media": 0.1,
       "computation_information": 0.22,
       "military_security": 0.0,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.0,
       "household_daily_life": 0.0,
       "culture_arts_recreation": 0.0,
       "science_measurement": 0.3,
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      "mse": {
       "model": 0.00157,
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     },
     "mechanism": {
      "predicted": {
       "discovery_observation": 0.048332,
       "theory_concept": 0.2168,
       "device_instrument": 0.611473,
       "process_technique": 0.055725,
       "material_substance": 0.059093,
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       "knowledge_transmission": 0.0,
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       "process_technique": 0.058583,
       "material_substance": 0.042234,
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       "discovery_observation": 0.08,
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      "mse": {
       "model": 0.00034,
       "persistence": 0.00063,
       "input_linear": 0.00159,
       "mean": 0.00689
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     },
     "institutional_context": {
      "predicted": {
       "individual_artisan": 0.040702,
       "scholarly_academic": 0.383119,
       "state_military": 0.199941,
       "religious": 0.0,
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       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "realized": {
       "individual_artisan": 0.025886,
       "scholarly_academic": 0.438692,
       "state_military": 0.076294,
       "religious": 0.0,
       "commercial_industrial": 0.453678,
       "unknown": 0.00545
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      "persistence": {
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       "state_military": 0.22,
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       "unknown": 0.0
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      "mse": {
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   },
   {
    "selected_as": "stress:mechanism",
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     "stress:mechanism"
    ],
    "year": 1966,
    "era": "Postwar systems",
    "anchor_title": "Genetic code fully cracked through trial-and-error experimental work.",
    "context_titles": [
     "Moore's Law. Gordon Moore. An observation that the number of transistors on a computer chi",
     "Robert Burns Woodward and Roald Hoffmann propose the Woodward–Hoffmann rules, which use th",
     "Aspartame. Schlatter, G.D. Searle.",
     "Dolby noise-reduction system. Dolby A.",
     "Dynamic random-access memory. aka DRAM.",
     "Genetic code. Hypothesized in 1955; codons identified in 1961; structure of tRNA in 1965; ",
     "Kevlar.",
     "Laser cutting.",
     "Optical fiber.",
     "Packet switching. invented independently by Baran in 1964 and Davies in 1965; first implem",
     "Thermographic camera. First commercial thermal imaging camera; established the electronic-",
     "Abraham Robinson presents non-standard analysis.",
     "BASIC. A high-level programming language that was developed by John Kemeny and Thomas Kurt",
     "C. Walton Lillehei performs the first human pancreas transplant.",
     "E. J. Putzer presents two methods for computing the exponential of a matrix in terms of a ",
     "Genetic code fully cracked through trial-and-error experimental work."
    ],
    "realized_window": {
     "events": 311,
     "sample_titles": [
      "Christiaan Barnard performs the first human heart transplant.",
      "First vaccine for mumps.",
      "Pulsars (rotating neutron stars) discovered.",
      "Robert Langlands formulates the influential Langlands program of conjectures relating numb",
      "Solar neutrino problem found.",
      "Unification of weak interaction and electromagnetism (electroweak theory)."
     ]
    },
    "axes": {
     "knowledge_domain": {
      "predicted": {
       "physics_astronomy": 0.128323,
       "chemistry_materials": 0.118052,
       "biology_medicine": 0.182946,
       "math_logic_software": 0.415416,
       "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.0,
       "electrical_information": 0.155263,
       "craft_empirical": 0.0,
       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "realized": {
       "physics_astronomy": 0.125402,
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       "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.085209,
       "electrical_information": 0.342444,
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       "unknown": 0.0
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      "persistence": {
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       "chemistry_materials": 0.16,
       "biology_medicine": 0.16,
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       "unknown": 0.0
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      "mse": {
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     },
     "origin_region": {
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       "north_america": 0.644286,
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       "mena": 0.003215,
       "europe": 0.26045,
       "north_america": 0.598071,
       "latin_america": 0.003215,
       "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0,
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      "persistence": {
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       "south_se_asia": 0.0,
       "mena": 0.02,
       "europe": 0.2,
       "north_america": 0.68,
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       "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0,
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      "mse": {
       "model": 0.00092,
       "persistence": 0.00138,
       "input_linear": 0.01618,
       "mean": 0.05783
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     },
     "application_domain": {
      "predicted": {
       "food_agriculture": 0.04,
       "health_medicine": 0.18,
       "making_materials": 0.12,
       "energy_power": 0.0,
       "transport": 0.0,
       "communication_media": 0.12,
       "computation_information": 0.28,
       "military_security": 0.02,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.0,
       "household_daily_life": 0.0,
       "culture_arts_recreation": 0.0,
       "science_measurement": 0.24,
       "unknown": 0.0
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      "realized": {
       "food_agriculture": 0.017685,
       "health_medicine": 0.244373,
       "making_materials": 0.045016,
       "energy_power": 0.030547,
       "transport": 0.041801,
       "communication_media": 0.200965,
       "computation_information": 0.202572,
       "military_security": 0.011254,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.004823,
       "household_daily_life": 0.017685,
       "culture_arts_recreation": 0.017685,
       "science_measurement": 0.163987,
       "unknown": 0.001608
      },
      "persistence": {
       "food_agriculture": 0.04,
       "health_medicine": 0.18,
       "making_materials": 0.12,
       "energy_power": 0.0,
       "transport": 0.0,
       "communication_media": 0.12,
       "computation_information": 0.28,
       "military_security": 0.02,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.0,
       "household_daily_life": 0.0,
       "culture_arts_recreation": 0.0,
       "science_measurement": 0.24,
       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "mse": {
       "model": 0.00246,
       "persistence": 0.00246,
       "input_linear": 0.00246,
       "mean": 0.00721
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     },
     "mechanism": {
      "predicted": {
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       "process_technique": 0.018205,
       "material_substance": 0.056468,
       "standard_system": 0.008673,
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       "unknown": 0.0
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      "realized": {
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       "device_instrument": 0.618971,
       "process_technique": 0.073955,
       "material_substance": 0.03537,
       "standard_system": 0.041801,
       "knowledge_transmission": 0.001608,
       "unknown": 0.0
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      "persistence": {
       "discovery_observation": 0.02,
       "theory_concept": 0.44,
       "device_instrument": 0.42,
       "process_technique": 0.04,
       "material_substance": 0.08,
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       "knowledge_transmission": 0.0,
       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "mse": {
       "model": 0.0245,
       "persistence": 0.01612,
       "input_linear": 0.00375,
       "mean": 0.00758
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     },
     "institutional_context": {
      "predicted": {
       "individual_artisan": 0.0,
       "scholarly_academic": 0.519109,
       "state_military": 0.032096,
       "religious": 0.0,
       "commercial_industrial": 0.448795,
       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "realized": {
       "individual_artisan": 0.027331,
       "scholarly_academic": 0.440514,
       "state_military": 0.07717,
       "religious": 0.0,
       "commercial_industrial": 0.446945,
       "unknown": 0.008039
      },
      "persistence": {
       "individual_artisan": 0.0,
       "scholarly_academic": 0.54,
       "state_military": 0.04,
       "religious": 0.0,
       "commercial_industrial": 0.42,
       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "mse": {
       "model": 0.0015,
       "persistence": 0.00214,
       "input_linear": 0.01999,
       "mean": 0.0354
      }
     }
    }
   },
   {
    "selected_as": "stress:knowledge_domain",
    "selection_reasons": [
     "stress:knowledge_domain"
    ],
    "year": 1970,
    "era": "Postwar systems",
    "anchor_title": "Salmon farming.",
    "context_titles": [
     "Quartz wristwatch. Seiko Quartz-Astron 35SQ.",
     "Rectified linear unit. aka ReLU, Rectifier.",
     "Wide-area computer network. ARPANET.",
     "Cyclosporine, the first effective immunosuppressive drug is introduced in organ transplant",
     "Hamilton Smith and Daniel Nathans discovered DNA restriction enzymes.",
     "Howard Temin and David Baltimore independently discovered reverse transcriptase enzymes.",
     "John Pople develops the Gaussian program greatly easing computational chemistry calculatio",
     "Standard Model of elementary particles invented.",
     "The pocket calculator is invented in Japan.",
     "Yuri Matiyasevich proves that the existence of solutions to Diophantine equations is undec",
     "Backpropagation.",
     "Cassette deck. Advent Model 200.",
     "Glyphosate. First made in 1950 by Swiss chemist Henry Martin at the company Cilag, but the",
     "Lunar rover. Lunokhod 1.",
     "Restriction enzymes. HindII. Smith, Thomas J. Kelly, Kent Wilcox.",
     "Salmon farming."
    ],
    "realized_window": {
     "events": 296,
     "sample_titles": [
      "Computed tomography (CT or CAT Scan) – Godfrey Hounsfield.",
      "Email is invented by Ray Tomlinson.",
      "Genetically modified organisms – Ananda Chakrabart.",
      "Helium 3 superfluidity.",
      "Intel 4004. Federico Faggin, Ted Hoff. The first microprocessor, which combined the functi",
      "MMR Vaccine - developed by Maurice Hilleman."
     ]
    },
    "axes": {
     "knowledge_domain": {
      "predicted": {
       "physics_astronomy": 0.062554,
       "chemistry_materials": 0.026333,
       "biology_medicine": 0.175612,
       "math_logic_software": 0.429435,
       "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.0,
       "electrical_information": 0.306065,
       "craft_empirical": 0.0,
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      "realized": {
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       "math_logic_software": 0.153716,
       "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.08277,
       "electrical_information": 0.364865,
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       "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.06,
       "electrical_information": 0.32,
       "craft_empirical": 0.02,
       "unknown": 0.0
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      "mse": {
       "model": 0.01153,
       "persistence": 0.00226,
       "input_linear": 0.00591,
       "mean": 0.02303
      }
     },
     "origin_region": {
      "predicted": {
       "east_asia": 0.028804,
       "south_se_asia": 0.0,
       "mena": 0.034145,
       "europe": 0.385562,
       "north_america": 0.534234,
       "latin_america": 0.0,
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       "oceania_other": 0.0,
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       "europe": 0.244932,
       "north_america": 0.599662,
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      "persistence": {
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       "south_se_asia": 0.0,
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       "europe": 0.32,
       "north_america": 0.56,
       "latin_america": 0.0,
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       "oceania_other": 0.0,
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       "unknown": 0.0
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      "mse": {
       "model": 0.00287,
       "persistence": 0.00101,
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       "mean": 0.05962
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     },
     "application_domain": {
      "predicted": {
       "food_agriculture": 0.08,
       "health_medicine": 0.14,
       "making_materials": 0.0,
       "energy_power": 0.04,
       "transport": 0.06,
       "communication_media": 0.16,
       "computation_information": 0.28,
       "military_security": 0.0,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.0,
       "household_daily_life": 0.04,
       "culture_arts_recreation": 0.0,
       "science_measurement": 0.2,
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      "realized": {
       "food_agriculture": 0.015203,
       "health_medicine": 0.234797,
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       "energy_power": 0.030405,
       "transport": 0.028716,
       "communication_media": 0.234797,
       "computation_information": 0.190878,
       "military_security": 0.016892,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.005068,
       "household_daily_life": 0.016892,
       "culture_arts_recreation": 0.018581,
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       "unknown": 0.001689
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      "persistence": {
       "food_agriculture": 0.08,
       "health_medicine": 0.14,
       "making_materials": 0.0,
       "energy_power": 0.04,
       "transport": 0.06,
       "communication_media": 0.16,
       "computation_information": 0.28,
       "military_security": 0.0,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.0,
       "household_daily_life": 0.04,
       "culture_arts_recreation": 0.0,
       "science_measurement": 0.2,
       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "mse": {
       "model": 0.00261,
       "persistence": 0.00261,
       "input_linear": 0.00261,
       "mean": 0.00787
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     },
     "mechanism": {
      "predicted": {
       "discovery_observation": 0.067404,
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       "process_technique": 0.013937,
       "material_substance": 0.040191,
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       "knowledge_transmission": 0.0,
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      "realized": {
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       "process_technique": 0.070946,
       "material_substance": 0.035473,
       "standard_system": 0.048986,
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       "unknown": 0.0
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      "persistence": {
       "discovery_observation": 0.12,
       "theory_concept": 0.22,
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       "process_technique": 0.04,
       "material_substance": 0.08,
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       "knowledge_transmission": 0.0,
       "unknown": 0.0
      },
      "mse": {
       "model": 0.00639,
       "persistence": 0.00304,
       "input_linear": 0.0034,
       "mean": 0.00873
      }
     },
     "institutional_context": {
      "predicted": {
       "individual_artisan": 0.003437,
       "scholarly_academic": 0.395011,
       "state_military": 0.110163,
       "religious": 0.0,
       "commercial_industrial": 0.483565,
       "unknown": 0.007824
      },
      "realized": {
       "individual_artisan": 0.027027,
       "scholarly_academic": 0.435811,
       "state_military": 0.055743,
       "religious": 0.0,
       "commercial_industrial": 0.476351,
       "unknown": 0.005068
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      "persistence": {
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       "scholarly_academic": 0.4,
       "state_military": 0.12,
       "religious": 0.0,
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       "unknown": 0.02
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      "mse": {
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   },
   {
    "selected_as": "stress:institutional_context",
    "selection_reasons": [
     "stress:institutional_context"
    ],
    "year": 1977,
    "era": "Postwar systems",
    "anchor_title": "Apple II. Steve Wozniak, Steve Jobs. A popular personal computer that was the first to use",
    "context_titles": [
     "Tau lepton found.",
     "Data Encryption Standard. publication of the DES; it would be approved as a standard the n",
     "Digital camera. Cromemco Cyclops.",
     "Epinephrine autoinjector. EpiPen. Invented in the mid-1970s. Commercialized in the 1980s.",
     "Flatbed image scanner. Autokon 8400.",
     "Standard Model of particle physics. date of the first documented use of the term. The mode",
     "Apple I. The first computer that was designed and built by Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs. I",
     "First commercial PET scanner.",
     "Kenneth Appel and Wolfgang Haken use a computer to prove the Four color theorem.",
     "Compact fluorescent lamp. Mass produced and commercialized only in 1995. Hammer, General E",
     "Handheld electronic game. Mattel Auto Race.",
     "Insulin pump. Biostator.",
     "Mars lander. Viking 1. Viking 1 soft-landed in Chryse Planitia on July 20, 1976, operating",
     "Public-key cryptography. Diffie–Hellman key exchange. Date of the first publication of the",
     "Word processor software. Electric Pencil.",
     "Apple II. Steve Wozniak, Steve Jobs. A popular personal computer that was the first to use"
    ],
    "realized_window": {
     "events": 258,
     "sample_titles": [
      "First live birth from in vitro fertilisation (IVF).",
      "Frederick Sanger presented the 5,386 base sequence for the virus PhiX174; first sequencing",
      "Last fatal case of smallpox.",
      "The Global Positioning System (GPS) enters service. While not the first Satellite navigati",
      "VisiCalc. The first electronic spreadsheet program, which was developed by Dan Bricklin an",
      "Automated external defibrillator. Heart-Aid."
     ]
    },
    "axes": {
     "knowledge_domain": {
      "predicted": {
       "physics_astronomy": 0.129897,
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       "biology_medicine": 0.082264,
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       "math_logic_software": 0.174419,
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     },
     "origin_region": {
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      "persistence": {
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       "north_america": 0.72,
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     "Richard Feynman gives an influential talk \"Simulating Physics with Computers\" (in 1980 Yur",
     "The first reusable spacecraft, the Space Shuttle undergoes test flights ahead of full oper",
     "Reusable spacecraft. Space Shuttle.",
     "Video display controller. NEC μPD7220.",
     "A CD-ROM contains data accessible to, but not writable by, a computer for data storage and",
     "Boltzmann machine. Geoffrey Hinton, Terry Sejnowski. A type of artificial neural network t",
     "Human insulin – Eli Lilly.",
     "Stanley B. Prusiner proposed the existence of infectious proteins, or prions. His idea is ",
     "The first laptop computer is launched, the 8/16-bit Epson HX-20.",
     "Artificial heart. Jarvik-7.",
     "Compact disc. aka CD.",
     "Deep ultraviolet lithography.",
     "Genetically modified plant. Tobacco with antibiotic resistance. Bevan, Richard B. Flavell,",
     "Insulated-gate bipolar transistor. Jayant Baliga, General Electric.",
     "Laptop computer. Epson HX-20. First true laptop: the Epson HX-20."
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      "Kary Mullis invented \"PCR\" ( polymerase chain reaction), an automated method for rapidly c",
      "Stereolithography is invented by Chuck Hull.",
      "TCP/IP. Vint Cerf, Bob Kahn. A protocol for transmitting data over the internet, which has",
      "Cell phone. Motorola DynaTAC 8000X.",
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     "institutional_context": {
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    "year": 1999,
    "era": "Networked computation",
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     "Wi-Fi. \"The first version of the 802.11 protocol was released in 1997, and provided up to ",
     "Accelerating expansion of the universe discovered by the Supernova Cosmology Project and t",
     "Atmospheric neutrino oscillation established.",
     "Google. Google was founded by Larry Page and Sergey Brin and quickly became the dominant s",
     "Mello and Fire publish their work on RNAi in c.elegans, for which they shared the 2006 Nob",
     "Stem cell therapy – James Thomson.",
     "The first portable MP3 player is released by SaeHan Information Systems.",
     "Thomas Callister Hales (almost certainly) proves the Kepler conjecture.",
     "Advanced Encryption Standard. aka Rijndael.",
     "Bluetooth.",
     "MP3 player. MPMan.",
     "PET-CT.",
     "Photonic-crystal fiber.",
     "Sildenafil. aka Viagra. First approval by the FDA.",
     "Blackberry. Blackberry devices were introduced, making mobile email and internet access wi"
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    "realized_window": {
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     "sample_titles": [
      "Quark-gluon plasma found.",
      "Restricted Boltzmann machine. Geoffrey Hinton. A type of artificial neural network that is",
      "Sony develops the first prototypes for the Blu-ray optical disc format. The first prototyp",
      "Tau neutrino found.",
      "The Human Genome Project draft was completed.",
      "the Clay Mathematics Institute proposes the seven Millennium Prize Problems of unsolved im"
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     },
     "institutional_context": {
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   {
    "selected_as": "era_typical:AI and platform era",
    "selection_reasons": [
     "era_typical:AI and platform era"
    ],
    "year": 2000,
    "era": "AI and platform era",
    "anchor_title": "Hang.",
    "context_titles": [
     "Charge qubit. aka Cooper-pair box.",
     "Digital video recorder. TiVo and ReplayTV.",
     "Flux qubit. Orlando, et al., MIT.",
     "GPU. GeForce 256.",
     "Multi-touch. to be confirmed; start of Fingerworks multi-touch products, but there are lot",
     "Quadcopter camera drone. Draganfly I.",
     "Software as a service. aka SaaS. Foundation of Salesforce, the first company founded speci",
     "Quark-gluon plasma found.",
     "Restricted Boltzmann machine. Geoffrey Hinton. A type of artificial neural network that is",
     "Sony develops the first prototypes for the Blu-ray optical disc format. The first prototyp",
     "Tau neutrino found.",
     "The Human Genome Project draft was completed.",
     "the Clay Mathematics Institute proposes the seven Millennium Prize Problems of unsolved im",
     "Always-on packet-switched cellular data. General Packet Radio Service / 2.5G. \"The first c",
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     "Hang."
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    "realized_window": {
     "events": 158,
     "sample_titles": [
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      "Publication of the first drafts of the complete human genome (see Craig Venter).",
      "Solar neutrino oscillation observed, resolving the solar neutrino problem.",
      "The first telesurgery was performed by Jacques Marescaux.",
      "Wikipedia. Wikipedia was launched as a free, collaborative encyclopedia that anyone could ",
      "iPod. A portable media player that was developed by Apple Computer. It was the first devic"
     ]
    },
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       "north_america": 0.560127,
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     },
     "application_domain": {
      "predicted": {
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       "health_medicine": 0.18,
       "making_materials": 0.0,
       "energy_power": 0.0,
       "transport": 0.02,
       "communication_media": 0.32,
       "computation_information": 0.22,
       "military_security": 0.0,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.0,
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       "unknown": 0.02
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      "realized": {
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       "energy_power": 0.012658,
       "transport": 0.066456,
       "communication_media": 0.227848,
       "computation_information": 0.28481,
       "military_security": 0.009494,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.0,
       "household_daily_life": 0.028481,
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       "science_measurement": 0.129747,
       "unknown": 0.0
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      "persistence": {
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       "health_medicine": 0.18,
       "making_materials": 0.0,
       "energy_power": 0.0,
       "transport": 0.02,
       "communication_media": 0.32,
       "computation_information": 0.22,
       "military_security": 0.0,
       "construction_infrastructure": 0.0,
       "household_daily_life": 0.0,
       "culture_arts_recreation": 0.0,
       "science_measurement": 0.22,
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      "mse": {
       "model": 0.002,
       "persistence": 0.002,
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     },
     "mechanism": {
      "predicted": {
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      "realized": {
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      "mse": {
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       "persistence": 0.00486,
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       "mean": 0.01006
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     },
     "institutional_context": {
      "predicted": {
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       "scholarly_academic": 0.471614,
       "state_military": 0.020917,
       "religious": 0.0,
       "commercial_industrial": 0.496816,
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      "realized": {
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      "persistence": {
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      },
      "mse": {
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    "selected_as": "stress:origin_region",
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    "year": 2000,
    "era": "AI and platform era",
    "anchor_title": "Golden rice.",
    "context_titles": [
     "Camera phone. Kyocera VP-210.",
     "Charge qubit. aka Cooper-pair box.",
     "Digital video recorder. TiVo and ReplayTV.",
     "Flux qubit. Orlando, et al., MIT.",
     "GPU. GeForce 256.",
     "Multi-touch. to be confirmed; start of Fingerworks multi-touch products, but there are lot",
     "Quadcopter camera drone. Draganfly I.",
     "Software as a service. aka SaaS. Foundation of Salesforce, the first company founded speci",
     "Quark-gluon plasma found.",
     "Restricted Boltzmann machine. Geoffrey Hinton. A type of artificial neural network that is",
     "Sony develops the first prototypes for the Blu-ray optical disc format. The first prototyp",
     "Tau neutrino found.",
     "The Human Genome Project draft was completed.",
     "the Clay Mathematics Institute proposes the seven Millennium Prize Problems of unsolved im",
     "Always-on packet-switched cellular data. General Packet Radio Service / 2.5G. \"The first c",
     "Golden rice."
    ],
    "realized_window": {
     "events": 158,
     "sample_titles": [
      "Mac OS X. A major update to the Macintosh operating system, which introduced a new Unix-ba",
      "Publication of the first drafts of the complete human genome (see Craig Venter).",
      "Solar neutrino oscillation observed, resolving the solar neutrino problem.",
      "The first telesurgery was performed by Jacques Marescaux.",
      "Wikipedia. Wikipedia was launched as a free, collaborative encyclopedia that anyone could ",
      "iPod. A portable media player that was developed by Apple Computer. It was the first devic"
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    },
    "axes": {
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     "application_domain": {
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   "context_titles": [
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    "Apple M1 Chip. A system-on-a-chip that was developed by Apple Computer. It is used in a ra",
    "GPT-3. OpenAI. A natural language processing model that is based on a transformer neural n",
    "Nvidia GeForce RTX 30 Series. A series of graphics cards that were developed by Nvidia. Th",
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    "The first room-temperature superconductor identified.",
    "AI protein structure prediction. AlphaFold 2. Jumper, Google, DeepMind.",
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    "Robotaxi. aka Level 4 (high automation) self-driving car. Date of first Level 4 – High Aut",
    "Small modular reactor. Akademik Lomonosov. The first commercial small modular reactor, the",
    "mRNA vaccine. COVID-19 vaccine.",
    "Microsoft Mesh. A mixed reality platform that was developed by Microsoft. It allows people",
    "AI code completion. GitHub Copilot.",
    "LLM chatbot. ChatGPT.",
    "Reasoning model. OpenAI o1.",
    "AI coding agent. Claude Code. Arguably, Claude Code is the first coding agent to work reli"
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   "axes": {
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      "surprise": 0.036437,
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      "year": -320000,
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      "year": -400000,
      "title": "Pigments. Ochre.",
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      "split": "train"
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     {
      "year": -200000,
      "title": "Glue. Birch bark tar.",
      "surprise": 0.029705,
      "split": "train"
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   },
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    "era": "Neolithic",
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      "title": "Domestication of goats.",
      "surprise": 0.028167,
      "split": "train"
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      "year": -8500,
      "title": "Domestication of cattle.",
      "surprise": 0.026858,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": -7500,
      "title": "Gypsum plaster. aka Plaster of Paris.",
      "surprise": 0.025102,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": -8000,
      "title": "Bulla. aka Clay envelope.",
      "surprise": 0.023723,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": -8500,
      "title": "Sandal.",
      "surprise": 0.023707,
      "split": "train"
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   },
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    "era": "Ancient",
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      "year": -330,
      "title": "China, the earliest known work on Chinese geometry, the Mo Jing, is compiled.",
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      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": -52,
      "title": "Armillary sphere (China). May date from the 4th century BC, but some historians doubt this",
      "surprise": 0.052419,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": -350,
      "title": "Pike. Sarissa. approximate; began being used tactically during the reign of Philip II of M",
      "surprise": 0.052052,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": -400,
      "title": "Greece, Thymaridas.",
      "surprise": 0.051532,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": -100,
      "title": "True dome. Possibly the frigidarium of the Stabian Baths, dating from the 2nd-1st centurie",
      "surprise": 0.051438,
      "split": "train"
     }
    ]
   },
   {
    "era": "Classical to early medieval",
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     {
      "year": 40,
      "title": "Fluked anchor. Intact anchors with the familiar modern design and iron parts were found on",
      "surprise": 0.05202,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": 200,
      "title": "Lateen and settee sail. The lateen originated in the Mediterranean as early as the 2nd cen",
      "surprise": 0.051444,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": 200,
      "title": "Pipa. Han dynasty.",
      "surprise": 0.049895,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": 200,
      "title": "Glass mirror. Pliny mentioned that artisans and Sidon were making glass mirrors in the 1st",
      "surprise": 0.049315,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": 200,
      "title": "Alembic. approximate, based on possible dates for Mary the Jewess (1st-3rd centuries) and ",
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      "split": "train"
     }
    ]
   },
   {
    "era": "Medieval",
    "median_surprise": 0.0331,
    "most_surprising": [
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      "year": 1450,
      "title": "Barrel organ. Letters patent in the Belgian state archives appoint Jehan van Steenken as '",
      "surprise": 0.052104,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
      "year": 1300,
      "title": "Ice skates with sharp edge. \"The Dutch added edges to ice skates in the 13th or 14th centu",
      "surprise": 0.052007,
      "split": "train"
     },
     {
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 "caveats": [
  "The strict chronological split begins in 1951. Every scored target window stays inside the test period and ends by the 2025 corpus frontier.",
  "The event descriptions were compiled retrospectively and can mention later impact. This is split chronology, not an as-of-information test.",
  "Time-anchored targets are corpus-level aggregates; model and all baselines score against identical targets.",
  "Labels are LLM-derived (two models, blind to curated metadata), validated against curated ground truth where it exists; disagreements are carried as split votes, not hidden.",
  "At 25y, the model beats raw-anchor linear on Kind of progress, Where it came from, Form of the advance, Who produced it; matches it on What it was for; beats persistence on Who produced it; matches it on What it was for; trails it on Kind of progress, Where it came from, Form of the advance; beats training mean on Kind of progress, Where it came from, What it was for, Form of the advance, Who produced it.",
  "The external dependency graph is hindsight-curated, omitted from the public bundle, and never supplied to the forecast model.",
  "The 25-year result is a chronological development benchmark: the residual evaluator was chosen after an earlier absolute-level readout failed. The separately marked 5-year audit uses 2016-2020 anchors under the frozen method.",
  "The five audit-year targets are overlapping rolling windows. The public result reports exact year-balanced errors, not an inferential confidence interval.",
  "The audit reports 26 anchors because representation extraction uses the model's full 24-step window rule; three otherwise eligible 2020 events lack the required eight later rows.",
  "Forecast cards are selected by the stated rule, not by hand; the frontier forecast carries a timestamped hash receipt and each axis shows its eval-earned reliability grade.",
  "Surprise is the model's latent prediction error. Similarity is cosine proximity in the learned context space; each surprise entry shows whether it came from train, validation, or test."
 ]
}