{ "version": "techtree_scenarios_v1", "generated": "2026-07-10T02:49:50.462291Z", "horizon_years": 25, "checkpoint_sha256": "9032f4a912e74f49fc8335982bd10be230b3369ae11d8625da3327527fa7054d", "method_note": "Each scenario run perturbs only the model's visible 16-event context window at the anchor (removing matching events and letting earlier real corpus events fill the window, or duplicating them in place of the oldest other events, with the window-internal time gaps recomputed) and re-runs the actual trained StructuredStateJEPA checkpoint forward pass to get a new context latent. That latent is mapped to 25-year label shares by the run's frozen ridge readout over the anchor's trailing-25-event persistence — the same projection pipeline behind the public forecast cards, verified here by reproducing the run's sealed frontier forecast before any scenario runs. The 25-year horizon matches the site's forecast cards (the model's native prediction horizon is 8 events, not years). These are descriptive sensitivity probes of the model, not alternate-history claims: no alternate ground truth exists.", "anchors": [ { "anchor_id": "y-3500", "year": -3500, "era": "Neolithic", "anchor_title": "Domestication of the horse in the Eurasian Steppes.", "context_titles": [ "Probable time period of the first diamond-mines in the world, in Southern India.", "Wheel: potter's wheels in Mesopotamia and wheeled vehicles in Mesopotamia (Sumerian civili", "Barrel vault. aka Tunnel vault.", "Domestication of sugarcane.", "Domestication of the donkey.", "Egyptian faience. Unrelated to the other material called \"faience\"", "Indigo dye.", "Kermes dye. aka Crimson. Late Neolithic Mediterranean region, evidence from the Adaouste c", "Lacquer.", "Natron. \"Natron deposits, the best known of which being those at Wadi Natrun in Egypt, hav", "Plumbing. Clay sewer pipes from the Temple of Bel at Nippur.", "Polished metal mirror.", "Straight razor. \"Excavations in Egypt have unearthed solid gold and copper razors in tombs", "Snowshoe.", "Silk garments (sericulture) in China.", "Domestication of the horse in the Eurasian Steppes." ], "axes_baseline": { "knowledge_domain": { "physics_astronomy": 0.0, "chemistry_materials": 0.0, "biology_medicine": 0.269305, "math_logic_software": 0.135017, "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.267913, "electrical_information": 0.0, "craft_empirical": 0.327765, "unknown": 0.0 }, "origin_region": { "east_asia": 0.0, "south_se_asia": 0.067915, "mena": 0.470773, "europe": 0.40429, "north_america": 0.0, "latin_america": 0.000478, "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0, "oceania_other": 0.0, "multiple": 0.056544, "unknown": 0.0 }, "application_domain": { "food_agriculture": 0.16, "health_medicine": 0.0, "making_materials": 0.48, "energy_power": 0.0, "transport": 0.08, "communication_media": 0.0, "computation_information": 0.0, "military_security": 0.0, "construction_infrastructure": 0.18, "household_daily_life": 0.06, "culture_arts_recreation": 0.04, "science_measurement": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "mechanism": { "discovery_observation": 0.0, "theory_concept": 0.121893, "device_instrument": 0.297195, "process_technique": 0.348259, "material_substance": 0.028764, "standard_system": 0.026602, "knowledge_transmission": 0.170446, "unknown": 0.006841 }, "institutional_context": { "individual_artisan": 0.834942, "scholarly_academic": 0.074323, "state_military": 0.066074, "religious": 0.024661, "commercial_industrial": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 } }, "axes_persistence": { "knowledge_domain": { "physics_astronomy": 0.0, "chemistry_materials": 0.22, "biology_medicine": 0.1, "math_logic_software": 0.0, "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.24, "electrical_information": 0.0, "craft_empirical": 0.44, "unknown": 0.0 }, "origin_region": { "east_asia": 0.16, "south_se_asia": 0.12, "mena": 0.4, "europe": 0.12, "north_america": 0.02, "latin_america": 0.0, "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0, "oceania_other": 0.0, "multiple": 0.16, "unknown": 0.02 }, "application_domain": { "food_agriculture": 0.16, "health_medicine": 0.0, "making_materials": 0.48, "energy_power": 0.0, "transport": 0.08, "communication_media": 0.0, "computation_information": 0.0, "military_security": 0.0, "construction_infrastructure": 0.18, "household_daily_life": 0.06, "culture_arts_recreation": 0.04, "science_measurement": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "mechanism": { "discovery_observation": 0.0, "theory_concept": 0.0, "device_instrument": 0.3, "process_technique": 0.46, "material_substance": 0.24, "standard_system": 0.0, "knowledge_transmission": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "institutional_context": { "individual_artisan": 0.86, "scholarly_academic": 0.0, "state_military": 0.08, "religious": 0.04, "commercial_industrial": 0.02, "unknown": 0.0 } }, "axes_realized": { "knowledge_domain": { "physics_astronomy": 0.0, "chemistry_materials": 0.0, "biology_medicine": 0.0, "math_logic_software": 0.0, "mechanics_manufacturing": 1.0, "electrical_information": 0.0, "craft_empirical": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "origin_region": { "east_asia": 0.0, "south_se_asia": 0.0, "mena": 0.0, "europe": 0.0, "north_america": 0.0, "latin_america": 0.0, "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0, "oceania_other": 0.0, "multiple": 0.0, "unknown": 1.0 }, "application_domain": { "food_agriculture": 0.0, "health_medicine": 0.0, "making_materials": 0.5, "energy_power": 0.5, "transport": 0.0, "communication_media": 0.0, "computation_information": 0.0, "military_security": 0.0, "construction_infrastructure": 0.0, "household_daily_life": 0.0, "culture_arts_recreation": 0.0, "science_measurement": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "mechanism": { "discovery_observation": 0.0, "theory_concept": 0.0, "device_instrument": 0.0, "process_technique": 1.0, "material_substance": 0.0, "standard_system": 0.0, "knowledge_transmission": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "institutional_context": { "individual_artisan": 0.5, "scholarly_academic": 0.0, "state_military": 0.0, "religious": 0.0, "commercial_industrial": 0.0, "unknown": 0.5 } }, "levers": [ { "lever_id": "institutional_context__individual_artisan__stalls", "label": "The individuals & artisans line stalls", "description": "What if the recent run of individuals & artisans work had not happened?", "perturbation_receipt": "Removed the 15 individuals & artisans events (institutional context) from the visible 16-event window; earlier corpus events fill the window, and the checkpoint was re-run.", "axes_projected": { "knowledge_domain": { "physics_astronomy": 0.0, "chemistry_materials": 0.041108, "biology_medicine": 0.137375, "math_logic_software": 0.186805, "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.193024, "electrical_information": 0.0, "craft_empirical": 0.440153, "unknown": 0.001535 }, "origin_region": { "east_asia": 0.0, "south_se_asia": 0.068451, "mena": 0.490055, "europe": 0.358369, "north_america": 0.002951, "latin_america": 0.005339, "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0, "oceania_other": 0.0, "multiple": 0.074835, "unknown": 0.0 }, "application_domain": { "food_agriculture": 0.16, "health_medicine": 0.0, "making_materials": 0.48, "energy_power": 0.0, "transport": 0.08, "communication_media": 0.0, "computation_information": 0.0, "military_security": 0.0, "construction_infrastructure": 0.18, "household_daily_life": 0.06, "culture_arts_recreation": 0.04, "science_measurement": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "mechanism": { "discovery_observation": 0.0, "theory_concept": 0.08952, "device_instrument": 0.279132, "process_technique": 0.394965, "material_substance": 0.043807, "standard_system": 0.028254, "knowledge_transmission": 0.145951, "unknown": 0.018371 }, "institutional_context": { "individual_artisan": 0.8332, "scholarly_academic": 0.073676, "state_military": 0.056583, "religious": 0.03654, "commercial_industrial": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 } }, "top_shifts": [ { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "biology_medicine", "delta": -0.13193 }, { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "craft_empirical", "delta": 0.112388 }, { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "mechanics_manufacturing", "delta": -0.074889 }, { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "math_logic_software", "delta": 0.051788 }, { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "process_technique", "delta": 0.046706 }, { "axis": "origin_region", "value_key": "europe", "delta": -0.045921 } ] }, { "lever_id": "institutional_context__individual_artisan__accelerates", "label": "The individuals & artisans line accelerates", "description": "What if individuals & artisans work had been running even hotter?", "perturbation_receipt": "Duplicated the 1 most recent individuals & artisans events (institutional context) in the visible 16-event window, displacing the oldest other events, and re-ran the checkpoint.", "axes_projected": { "knowledge_domain": { "physics_astronomy": 0.0, "chemistry_materials": 0.004813, "biology_medicine": 0.189754, "math_logic_software": 0.143332, "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.259601, "electrical_information": 0.0, "craft_empirical": 0.402501, "unknown": 0.0 }, "origin_region": { "east_asia": 0.0, "south_se_asia": 0.054522, "mena": 0.487334, "europe": 0.398193, "north_america": 0.0, "latin_america": 0.0, "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0, "oceania_other": 0.0, "multiple": 0.05995, "unknown": 0.0 }, "application_domain": { "food_agriculture": 0.16, "health_medicine": 0.0, "making_materials": 0.48, "energy_power": 0.0, "transport": 0.08, "communication_media": 0.0, "computation_information": 0.0, "military_security": 0.0, "construction_infrastructure": 0.18, "household_daily_life": 0.06, "culture_arts_recreation": 0.04, "science_measurement": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "mechanism": { "discovery_observation": 0.0, "theory_concept": 0.100304, "device_instrument": 0.271237, "process_technique": 0.398125, "material_substance": 0.030427, "standard_system": 0.024203, "knowledge_transmission": 0.167389, "unknown": 0.008315 }, "institutional_context": { "individual_artisan": 0.831263, "scholarly_academic": 0.071637, "state_military": 0.065483, "religious": 0.031617, "commercial_industrial": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 } }, "top_shifts": [ { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "biology_medicine", "delta": -0.079551 }, { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "craft_empirical", "delta": 0.074736 }, { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "process_technique", "delta": 0.049866 }, { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "device_instrument", "delta": -0.025958 }, { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "theory_concept", "delta": -0.021589 }, { "axis": "origin_region", "value_key": "mena", "delta": 0.016561 } ] }, { "lever_id": "mechanism__process_technique__stalls", "label": "The process / technique line stalls", "description": "What if the recent run of process / technique work had not happened?", "perturbation_receipt": "Removed the 11 process / technique events (mechanism) from the visible 16-event window; earlier corpus events fill the window, and the checkpoint was re-run.", "axes_projected": { "knowledge_domain": { "physics_astronomy": 0.0, "chemistry_materials": 0.0, "biology_medicine": 0.267819, "math_logic_software": 0.166446, "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.235755, "electrical_information": 0.0, "craft_empirical": 0.329979, "unknown": 0.0 }, "origin_region": { "east_asia": 0.0, "south_se_asia": 0.081025, "mena": 0.471647, "europe": 0.383758, "north_america": 0.0, "latin_america": 0.0, "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0, "oceania_other": 0.0, "multiple": 0.06357, "unknown": 0.0 }, "application_domain": { "food_agriculture": 0.16, "health_medicine": 0.0, "making_materials": 0.48, "energy_power": 0.0, "transport": 0.08, "communication_media": 0.0, "computation_information": 0.0, "military_security": 0.0, "construction_infrastructure": 0.18, "household_daily_life": 0.06, "culture_arts_recreation": 0.04, "science_measurement": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "mechanism": { "discovery_observation": 0.0, "theory_concept": 0.121, "device_instrument": 0.295904, "process_technique": 0.347277, "material_substance": 0.03659, "standard_system": 0.027631, "knowledge_transmission": 0.163345, "unknown": 0.008253 }, "institutional_context": { "individual_artisan": 0.839093, "scholarly_academic": 0.071071, "state_military": 0.062716, "religious": 0.027119, "commercial_industrial": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 } }, "top_shifts": [ { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "mechanics_manufacturing", "delta": -0.032158 }, { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "math_logic_software", "delta": 0.031429 }, { "axis": "origin_region", "value_key": "europe", "delta": -0.020532 }, { "axis": "origin_region", "value_key": "south_se_asia", "delta": 0.01311 }, { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "material_substance", "delta": 0.007826 }, { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "knowledge_transmission", "delta": -0.007101 } ] }, { "lever_id": "mechanism__process_technique__accelerates", "label": "The process / technique line accelerates", "description": "What if process / technique work had been running even hotter?", "perturbation_receipt": "Duplicated the 3 most recent process / technique events (mechanism) in the visible 16-event window, displacing the oldest other events, and re-ran the checkpoint.", "axes_projected": { "knowledge_domain": { "physics_astronomy": 0.0, "chemistry_materials": 0.000407, "biology_medicine": 0.188773, "math_logic_software": 0.142349, "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.268869, "electrical_information": 0.0, "craft_empirical": 0.399602, "unknown": 0.0 }, "origin_region": { "east_asia": 0.0, "south_se_asia": 0.052122, "mena": 0.486185, "europe": 0.400195, "north_america": 0.0, "latin_america": 0.0, "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0, "oceania_other": 0.0, "multiple": 0.061499, "unknown": 0.0 }, "application_domain": { "food_agriculture": 0.16, "health_medicine": 0.0, "making_materials": 0.48, "energy_power": 0.0, "transport": 0.08, "communication_media": 0.0, "computation_information": 0.0, "military_security": 0.0, "construction_infrastructure": 0.18, "household_daily_life": 0.06, "culture_arts_recreation": 0.04, "science_measurement": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "mechanism": { "discovery_observation": 0.0, "theory_concept": 0.095029, "device_instrument": 0.277057, "process_technique": 0.397174, "material_substance": 0.029852, "standard_system": 0.021748, "knowledge_transmission": 0.170921, "unknown": 0.008219 }, "institutional_context": { "individual_artisan": 0.832418, "scholarly_academic": 0.068492, "state_military": 0.067516, "religious": 0.031573, "commercial_industrial": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 } }, "top_shifts": [ { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "biology_medicine", "delta": -0.080532 }, { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "craft_empirical", "delta": 0.071837 }, { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "process_technique", "delta": 0.048915 }, { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "theory_concept", "delta": -0.026864 }, { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "device_instrument", "delta": -0.020138 }, { "axis": "origin_region", "value_key": "south_se_asia", "delta": -0.015793 } ] }, { "lever_id": "application_domain__making_materials__stalls", "label": "The making & materials line stalls", "description": "What if the recent run of making & materials work had not happened?", "perturbation_receipt": "Removed the 8 making & materials events (application domain) from the visible 16-event window; earlier corpus events fill the window, and the checkpoint was re-run.", "axes_projected": { "knowledge_domain": { "physics_astronomy": 0.0, "chemistry_materials": 0.0, "biology_medicine": 0.285223, "math_logic_software": 0.132744, "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.260678, "electrical_information": 0.0, "craft_empirical": 0.317943, "unknown": 0.003412 }, "origin_region": { "east_asia": 0.0, "south_se_asia": 0.080011, "mena": 0.456474, "europe": 0.402555, "north_america": 0.0, "latin_america": 0.0, "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0, "oceania_other": 0.0, "multiple": 0.060959, "unknown": 0.0 }, "application_domain": { "food_agriculture": 0.16, "health_medicine": 0.0, "making_materials": 0.48, "energy_power": 0.0, "transport": 0.08, "communication_media": 0.0, "computation_information": 0.0, "military_security": 0.0, "construction_infrastructure": 0.18, "household_daily_life": 0.06, "culture_arts_recreation": 0.04, "science_measurement": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "mechanism": { "discovery_observation": 0.0, "theory_concept": 0.134443, "device_instrument": 0.303526, "process_technique": 0.34595, "material_substance": 0.032018, "standard_system": 0.034791, "knowledge_transmission": 0.138096, "unknown": 0.011175 }, "institutional_context": { "individual_artisan": 0.832949, "scholarly_academic": 0.07442, "state_military": 0.068733, "religious": 0.023898, "commercial_industrial": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 } }, "top_shifts": [ { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "knowledge_transmission", "delta": -0.03235 }, { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "biology_medicine", "delta": 0.015918 }, { "axis": "origin_region", "value_key": "mena", "delta": -0.014299 }, { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "theory_concept", "delta": 0.01255 }, { "axis": "origin_region", "value_key": "south_se_asia", "delta": 0.012096 }, { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "craft_empirical", "delta": -0.009822 } ] }, { "lever_id": "application_domain__making_materials__accelerates", "label": "The making & materials line accelerates", "description": "What if making & materials work had been running even hotter?", "perturbation_receipt": "Duplicated the 3 most recent making & materials events (application domain) in the visible 16-event window, displacing the oldest other events, and re-ran the checkpoint.", "axes_projected": { "knowledge_domain": { "physics_astronomy": 0.0, "chemistry_materials": 0.0, "biology_medicine": 0.274178, "math_logic_software": 0.120167, "mechanics_manufacturing": 0.271154, "electrical_information": 0.0, "craft_empirical": 0.334501, "unknown": 0.0 }, "origin_region": { "east_asia": 0.0, "south_se_asia": 0.067206, "mena": 0.473427, "europe": 0.402215, "north_america": 0.0, "latin_america": 0.000253, "sub_saharan_africa": 0.0, "oceania_other": 0.0, "multiple": 0.056899, "unknown": 0.0 }, "application_domain": { "food_agriculture": 0.16, "health_medicine": 0.0, "making_materials": 0.48, "energy_power": 0.0, "transport": 0.08, "communication_media": 0.0, "computation_information": 0.0, "military_security": 0.0, "construction_infrastructure": 0.18, "household_daily_life": 0.06, "culture_arts_recreation": 0.04, "science_measurement": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 }, "mechanism": { "discovery_observation": 0.0, "theory_concept": 0.123532, "device_instrument": 0.296278, "process_technique": 0.351321, "material_substance": 0.027253, "standard_system": 0.025236, "knowledge_transmission": 0.170781, "unknown": 0.005599 }, "institutional_context": { "individual_artisan": 0.833776, "scholarly_academic": 0.075217, "state_military": 0.066382, "religious": 0.024626, "commercial_industrial": 0.0, "unknown": 0.0 } }, "top_shifts": [ { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "math_logic_software", "delta": -0.01485 }, { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "craft_empirical", "delta": 0.006736 }, { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "biology_medicine", "delta": 0.004873 }, { "axis": "knowledge_domain", "value_key": "mechanics_manufacturing", "delta": 0.003241 }, { "axis": "mechanism", "value_key": "process_technique", "delta": 0.003062 }, { "axis": "origin_region", "value_key": "mena", "delta": 0.002654 } ] } ] }, { "anchor_id": "y-2510", "year": -2510, "era": "Ancient", "anchor_title": "Solar calendar. Egyptian calendar. \"The civil calendar was established at some early date ", "context_titles": [ "Imhotep the priest-physician who was later deified as the Egyptian god of medicine.", "Levee in Indus Valley (India, Pakistan).", "Planned city in Indus Valley (India, Pakistan).", "Public bath in Mohenjo-daro, Indus Valley (Pakistan).", "Public sewage and sanitation systems in Indus Valley sites such as Mohenjo-Daro and Rakhig", "Balance scale.", "Barrel.", "Dock.", "Paved road. Lake Moeris Quarry Road. Quarry road from the Old Kingdom era, 2600-2200 BC.", "Public bath. Great Bath of Mohenjo-Daro.", "Ink.", "Papyrus. Earliest estimate for the Diary of Merer, the oldest papyrus found. Manufacture o", "Reed pen. Oldest reed pens found in Egypt date from 400 BCE, but they probably date to the", "Scroll. The oldest known scroll is the Diary of Merer, which can be dated to c. 2568 BCE.", "Docks in either Egypt or the Indus Valley. A harbor structure has been excavated in Wadi a", "Solar calendar. 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Marcellinus a physician of the first century AD; Numisianus.", "The Aeolipile, a simple steam turbine is recorded by Hero of Alexandria.", "Vending machines invented by Hero of Alexandria.", "Fire piston. \"The antiquity of the fire piston in Southeast Asia is unknown, but it defini", "Latitude and longitude. approximate, based on Marinus of Tyre's lifetime. Influenced Ptole", "Mould-board plough. Han dynasty \"in the 1st and 2nd century\"", "Odometer (China). \"possibly by the prolific inventor and early scientist Zhang Heng (78 AD", "Pivoted scissors. Modern scissor design.", "Sternpost-mounted rudder. 1st century, Eastern Han dynasty.", "Papermaking. Cai Lun is generally credited as the inventor of paper, but there is archeolo", "Wheelbarrow. Probably around 100 AD; first archeological evidence on murals from 118 AD. P", "Galen – Clinical medicine based on observation and experience. 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Wan'gu.", "Hwacha.", "Brace in Flandres, Holy Roman Empire.", "Brace.", "Full plate armor. \"By about 1420, complete suits of plate armour had been developed in Eur", "Perspective in art.", "Ghiyath al-Kashi computes π to sixteen decimal places using inscribed and circumscribed po", "Seaweed farming. Cultivation of gim is mentioned in a 1425 Korean book.", "Coach. Earliest documented instance of the Kocs light wagon: two gifted to Italian envoys ", "Al-Kashi completes The Key to Arithmetic containing work of great depth on decimal fractio", "Engraving. Appears in 1430s Rhineland, associated with an anonymous printer referred to as", "Mainspring. \"The earliest existing spring driven clock is the chamber clock given to Phill", "Suction pump. 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